Thursday, October 2, 2008

Comment by our fearless leader Vince in respone to "When the US sneezes, Australia catches pneumonia"

Hi all
Sorry that I hav'nt got back to you, I'm on tour and have been up in Cape Trib.

as to comments on the present money crisis ---ehhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!

I know that our family has lost as a whole close to a million wiped off our combined portfolio's....sorry we are very worried. However in saying that, Austraila,as a whole, while suffering the stock jitter's, is able to ride this out in the short - medium term; our banks are under control and have moved in the last year to reduce their exposure to the US.

We should be ok if.......

1) China can at least maintain i(Australian) import levels at the current level,
2) the Europeans, and other cash positive countries (China, Japann, Tiawan, and the Emirates etc.) continue to support the US's need for cash,
3) That these cash positive economies maintain cash/credit flow's and feel confident that they are not putting good money into bad
4) and I think the most important is that the world see that the US Govt.( and its Presidential candidates) do not play politics with the world economy. If this means a hard time for the US so be it; however, if they try and "cushion" the US for short term political gain, then you will find the cash/credit will dry up as those economies, such as the EU, China, Japan and Australia will "fortress" the money to save themselves and that will see devastating effects on the US, seeing a weaker postion on international trade, which Europe in particular will only be to happy to exploit at the US's expence.

Australia has large cash reserves and tight controls on the economy--which will be getting tighter, a lot of people may lose asset weatlh but the country as a whole should be Ok--short to medium term.

3 times, now, and in the last 20 years, the US has almost imploded the world economy with under an represented "bubble collapse." The Europeans in particular won't let it happen again even if that means the collapse of the US economy

It's very scary times for all of us, and sorry if this is pretty "heavy" but that is the short and long of it

Cheers
Vince

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